Why Serbia is Staying Silent on Israel-Palestine Carnage

The reaction of official Belgrade since the events of October 7 can best be described as muted and discreet. President Aleksandar Vučić and Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić touched on the issue a few times, but only briefly. Among the few official steps Serbia took are the votes in the UN General Assembly. This discretion reflects the strategic culture of Serbia’s diplomacy that President Vučić in September 2022 briefly summarized as: dodging. This does not mean, however, that Serbian society is not reacting to the scenes from Gaza.

The prime aim of Serbia’s foreign policy concerns the final status of Kosovo, and it remaining within the sovereign territory of Serbia. Belgrade’s claim hinges on respect for international law universally, especially when sovereignty elsewhere is concerned. This is why Serbia has not recognized the territorial changes induced by Russia in Ukraine and Georgia. Applied to the cases of Israel and Palestine, both of whom are recognized by Serbia, Belgrade adheres to the two-state solution, with Israel in its pre-1967 borders. When it comes to the status of Jerusalem, Serbia in 2020 decided to transfer its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem when it signed the Washington Agreement under the auspices of the former US President Donald Trump. But nothing was said about Serbia accepting Jerusalem, partly or totally, as Israeli territory. The move from Tel Aviv also came to nothing. Serbia dragged its feet until Trump was voted out of office. It has since excused itself by the fact that Israel has recognized Kosovo as independent.

The attitude of the Arab League also has to be considered. Most of its members, 15 out of 22, have recognized Kosovo, but there has been a power change since Egypt and Libya did this in 2013. Egypt has re-defined its stance towards Kosovo as “frozen recognition” and Vučić claims Somalia and Libya have withdrawn their recognitions. Belgrade would not want to upset its Arab allies, especially those in the Maghreb, whose animosity towards Israel was high even before the attacks on Gaza.

The second declared priority of Belgrade’s foreign policy is Serbia’s accession to the European Union. Slouching towards Brussels, this involves Serbia adopting decisions from EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy, CSDP. This caused many a problem for Belgrade in 2022, when it resisted introducing any measures against Moscow, despite explicit demands from the EU and its member states to harmonize with CSDP. But for now, such pressures do not exist. Not only are the EU member states of different minds about how to proceed, but the top of the EU did not show much coherence either, with the President of the Commission Ursula von der Layen, President of the Council Charles Michelle, and the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell all voicing disparate positions.

Under such circumstances, Serbia can adopt its invisible stance, which it did, together with 15 EU member states when they abstained from voting for the UN General Assembly Resolution ES-10/21 that called for a humanitarian truce in Gaza on October 26. However, on November 9, Serbia voted in favour of four out of five resolutions, fairly critical of Israel, passed in the UNGA’s Fourth Committee. In these four “ayes” and one abstention, Serbia walked in step with nearly all other European countries, except Hungary.

After their initial condemnations of Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October, President Vučić and Minister Dačić were terse on the subject, which is to be expected, considering not only the position of Serbia in international affairs but also the election campaign Serbia boarded at the same time. Neither the ruling Serbian Progressive Party of President Vučić nor the opposition parties will look farther than Serbia’s backyard for the remainder of the year. The Paris Peace Forum that took place on the occasion of Armistice Day left Vučić with the impression that the situation in Gaza left all other issues in the shade, including that of Serbia and Kosovo.

Another motive for pursuing its diplomacy of equidistance is Foreign Direct Investment from, and trade with, the countries of the Middle East. Most FDI comes from Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey. Israeli companies such as AFI, BKA and Big Group have invested in real estate development in Belgrade, while Enlight Renewable Energies built a wind farm in Serbia’s northern province of Vojvodina. The Emirates’ investments are not as transparent and involve the agricultural sector and a vaccine production line that never went into operation. On the other side, Serbia has lucrative trade agreements with Arab countries, especially in the armaments industry. According to SIPRI’s reports on arms exports, by 2019 Algeria, Egypt, and the Emirates were among the top buyers in the Arab world of Serbia-made weapons. Libya, divided since 2011, might also have been a market for Serbian weaponry. Together with Algeria, it is among the Arab states that are most hostile towards Israel. For Serbia to step too openly on either side would risk courting the displeasure of its investors, or its buyers.

Among the parties on the Serbian political scene, the only exception so far in taking a position on events in the Middle East has been the Green-Left Front, an eco-leftist party that has five of the 250 seats in parliament. The Front condemned Hamas’s terrorist attacks but also demanded a ceasefire and the implementation of the two-state solution as the only sustainable way of achieving long-term peace. But even they reacted only in late October, at the demand of their members.

However, other voices came from Serbian society. A Walk for Peace in Israel took place in Belgrade on October 15, and then another gathering on October 25, when the release of Hamas-held Israeli hostages was demanded. On October 22 and November 12 protests in support of Palestine took place, one also in Novi Sad. Neither gathering attracted more than several hundred attendants. The pro-Palestinian rallies saw some conflation of political causes, as several flags, of Serbia, Russia and even one of North Korea, were waved at them.

This section of Serbian society seems to look at the events in Gaza through the lens of global resistance to US hegemony and/or the Global West. The best-attended protest in support of Palestine took place on November 2 in Novi Pazar, the main city of the majority-Muslim Sandžak region in south-western Serbia. Thousands attended it without supporting any other causes but that of Gaza.

Sports and entertainment in Serbia are never far from politics, and the two became involved in the Israel/Palestine issue as well. Israeli basketball clubs Maccabi and Hapoel will move to Serbia while the conflict is ongoing and will host games taking place within the Euroleague in Belgrade. Serbia’s government gave its guarantees and the security services their estimate that Belgrade might be the safest location for the Israeli basketball players. Politically, it is part of Serbia’s balancing act and a symbol of solidarity with the Israelis.

A different voice comes from the Serbian pop-music scene. One of the most popular singers, Jelena Karleuša, has taken up the Palestinian cause on her Instagram profile with 2 million followers. Known for her ardent approach when it comes to advocacy, and also known for getting involved with President Vučić’s PR network, Karleuša has used strong words to shame the IDF’s actions, evoking sympathy for the plight of the Palestinian civilians. While her motives may be sincere, the fact that she is not censored for them indicates that the President is fine with alternative opinions being publicly voiced, as has been the case with the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Meanwhile, volatility of the region served as an inspiration for a song about a dysfunctional relationship of Karleuša’s younger colleague Tea Tahirović. “Izrael i Palestina” was released in March but was resurrected to the list of top-trending songs in Serbia since the conflict erupted. Normally, the Balkans do not heed political correctness, but Tahirović decided to change the reference into “Spain and Argentina” to forestall any critique. Unlike Serbia, she can afford a decision.

Unlike either Tahirović or Serbia, Palestinians in Gaza have little choice in their lives, other than moving to an ever-shrinking “safe zone” of their ruined city, where their chances of survival are somewhat higher. The images of these people, moving or dead, evoke memories of homes lost and communities wiped out during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. Israel’s Ambassador to Croatia, Gary Koren, at a press conference drew a parallel between Israel’s current military operation and Croatia’s 1995 military operation “Storm”. That alone should make Croats understand why Israelis are doing what they are doing, in the ambassador’s mind. The expelled Croatian Serbs “were lucky to have Serbia receive them”, Koren quipped, chastising the Arab nations for not being willing to take in Palestinian refugees that Israel would probably deprive of the right of return.

To recall, in Operation “Storm”, Croatia regained its territory and some 200,000 Serbs who lived there were either ethnically cleansed or “decided to leave” – an event very similar to the Palestinian “Nakba” of 1948. Israel’s Foreign Ministry distanced itself from Koren’s remarks, but members of the Israeli Knesset and PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet have voiced opinions far more worthy of distancing regarding the future of Palestinians.

In the Serbian morning and prime time talk-shows, one can hear various analysts and pundits admire Israel’s tactics and even propose Serbia should emulate them in Kosovo. Or, they compare the actions of Serbian forces in Kosovo in 1999 and the special military operation in Gaza, concluding that Serbia was punished by NATO for a fraction of what Israel has done in a month. Accusations of Western hypocrisy and double standards ensue.

In a region as famous for its volatility as the Middle East, all people of the Balkans were at some point Palestinians. And all the nationalists – perpetrators, who now watch the scenes from Gaza not with horror but with glee, dreaming of themselves as the Israel of the Balkans. What is frozen can quickly be unfrozen, especially with the erosion of humanity being broadcast daily from Palestine. (BIRN)