Albania's ruling party leads polls ahead of May elections

Tirana, January 9, 2025 - Albania's Socialist Party (SP) is on track to win a fourth term in the upcoming general election, according to a recent poll. Conducted by analyst Eduard Zaloshnja and shared on Report TV’s “Repolitix,” the survey suggests the SP could gain 80 seats in parliament, six more than in 2021.

The Democratic Party (DP), Albania's main opposition, appears to be losing support. The poll predicts it will secure 46 seats, a significant drop from the 59 it won in the last election. Smaller, older parties are also struggling, with their expected share falling from seven seats to just two.

However, new political parties are gaining momentum, with the poll estimating they could win 12 seats—a sign of growing public interest in alternative options.

Regional shifts

The survey highlights changes in voter preferences across key regions:

Vlora: The SP is expected to keep its eight seats, while the DP’s share drops from four to two. New parties are set to claim the remaining two seats.

Korça: Despite losing a seat to Tirana due to redistricting, the SP is projected to retain six seats, while the DP loses one, leaving it with four.

Elbasan: The SP could strengthen its position, gaining a ninth seat. The DP is predicted to win five, down from six.

Berat: The SP is likely to dominate with six of the region's seven seats, leaving just one for the DP.

Fier: Both major parties may replicate their 2021 results, with the SP at nine seats and the DP at six. A new party could secure one seat previously held by smaller groups.

The role of diaspora voters

The poll indicates strong support for the SP among Albanians living abroad, who were surveyed across the five regions.

Poll methodology

The survey included 16,913 respondents, with 11,328 voters from Albania’s ten largest regions and 5,585 from the diaspora. Participants were chosen through randomized SMS invitations, and the sample was adjusted to reflect the population’s demographics. The margin of error ranges from ±2.9% in Tirana to ±4.4% in Lezha.