Kosovo leaders hope for stronger US ties under Trump's presidency

November 10, 2024 — Kosovo’s leaders, including President Vjosa Osmani and Prime Minister Albin Kurti, along with top figures from all major political parties, congratulated Donald Trump on his return to the White House, expressing hopes for strengthened cooperation with the United States.

The United States has played a crucial role in supporting Kosovo since it declared independence from Serbia in 2008. As Trump prepares to take office, leaders in Pristina signaled readiness to work closely with his administration, particularly in pursuing Kosovo’s integration into the European Union.

During Trump’s first term, Richard Grenell, a close ally and former U.S. envoy, facilitated a key 2020 Washington agreement aimed at normalizing economic relations between Kosovo and Serbia. The agreement, signed at the White House, came months after Kosovo’s government at the time collapsed following disagreements over lifting tariffs on Serbian goods. Prime Minister Kurti, then in his first term, resisted U.S. pressure to remove the tariffs, leading to tensions that ultimately brought down his government. Grenell was later criticized by Kurti for allegedly influencing the parliamentary vote that toppled the administration.

Speculation is already mounting that Grenell could play a renewed role in the Trump administration, possibly even as Secretary of State. Political analysts, such as Agon Maliqi, expect Grenell to renew his engagement with the Western Balkans, though the specifics remain uncertain. Maliqi highlighted that the European Union's stance on regional dynamics will also factor heavily into any new developments.

Kosovo’s current approach toward U.S. administrations has occasionally stirred concern, Maliqi noted, particularly as the Biden administration openly disagreed with some of Pristina's policies but maintained a degree of tolerance and understanding. “This tolerance may not continue under Trump, whose administration is likely to expect strong alignment with U.S. policy," Maliqi said.

During Trump’s previous tenure, discussions around a possible territorial exchange between Kosovo and Serbia emerged as a potential solution to regional tensions. Although then-National Security Advisor John Bolton confirmed the U.S. would not endorse such a deal, he clarified that the U.S. would not obstruct any agreement reached independently by Kosovo and Serbia.

The proposal met strong resistance within both Kosovo and Serbia, as well as among EU states, with Germany among the most vocal opponents. Grenell repeatedly denied U.S. involvement in such discussions. The topic resurfaced recently during an EU parliamentary hearing, where Marta Kos, the incoming EU Enlargement Commissioner, firmly rejected territorial exchange as a policy option.

According to Maliqi, a renewed push for territorial exchange seems unlikely, though he warned that the prolonged EU-led dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia could open doors to alternative solutions. “The longer the Brussels process drags on without results, the greater the likelihood of unconventional proposals re-emerging, as both Kosovo and Serbia’s EU aspirations remain stalled,” Maliqi explained.

Amid EU sanctions and shifting U.S. priorities, Kosovo may face new challenges under Trump’s presidency. Maliqi observed that Serbia, meanwhile, appears confident of a more favorable approach from the new administration. “Belgrade perceives that it may now encounter less pressure on dialogue terms and potentially exert more influence. This is something Kosovo’s leaders must carefully consider,” he said.