In the Western Balkans, the West is trying to push Russia out

17 Mars 2023, 14:27Kosovo & Region Agron Maliqi

Even as fighting rages on in Ukraine, a less obvious struggle is taking place between Russia and the West elsewhere on the European Union’s periphery. With war draining its resources, Moscow has been less able to project power beyond its borders — and Western powers are moving to take advantage of the vacuum.

That’s what’s happening right now in the Western Balkans, where last month there were visible signs of progress in efforts to settle a long-standing dispute between Serbia and Kosovo. Kosovo’s prime minister, Albin Kurti, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic met in Brussels and agreed in principle to a normalization proposal between the two countries. No documents were signed — negotiations are still underway for a road map. But there is optimism that a breakthrough is within reach. The two leaders are set to meet again on Saturday.

To seal the deal and deliver a blow to Russian influence in the region, the United States and its European partners are finding they are having to walk a tightrope, trying to get a former Russian client’s buy-in while coercing a longtime ally. This morally ambiguous strategy could prove to be enormously consequential. But it’s not without its perils.
Russia has traditionally been a key backer of Serbia in its dispute with pro-Western, democratic Kosovo.

Even though Kosovo declared independence in 2008, over a decade after the bloody Yugoslav wars ended, Serbia has refused to recognize it. Tensions in Kosovo’s Serbian-majority north last year threatened to spiral into violence. Serbian nationalists cannot bring themselves to acknowledge that Kosovo is long gone, and Russia’s support for their cause has allowed Moscow to keep a cynical grip on Serbia’s politics.
The agreement proposed by the E.U., with U.S. backing, is framed as an interim solution. Serbia would not have to formally recognize Kosovo, but the two countries would acknowledge each other’s sovereignty. Western negotiators have reportedly threatened both sides with consequences for noncompliance and presented them with a take-it-or-leave-it version of the agreement.

But in attempts to decisively woo Serbia out of Russia’s orbit, U.S. and E.U. mediators have gone out of their way to accommodate a few key Serbian demands — and applied heavy pressure on Kosovo’s leadership.
Two of these demands stand out. The mediators insist that Kosovo immediately start fulfilling a 2015 agreement to establish an Association of Serbian-majority Municipalities (ASM) — a body that would grant additional autonomy to the 5 percent Serbian minority living in Kosovo. The mediators are also reportedly open to Serbia’s insistence of having Kosovo commit in writing that it would not apply for U.N. membership without the consent of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.


Kosovo’s Kurti has agreed to the substance of the proposal, but has openly criticized the mediators’ approach. He argues that Serbia has been delaying Kosovo’s full recognition for more than a decade by dragging out the E.U.-led dialogue, and that Vucic is being rewarded despite his refusal to fully align with Western policy on Ukraine.

Kurti is also stalling on the ASM, pointing to a court ruling that found parts of the agreement unconstitutional. The widespread fear in Kosovo is that the ASM could end up like the Republika Srpska entity in Bosnia. Conceived of as a war-ending measure in 1995 granting Bosnian Serbs broad autonomy, it has made Bosnia very difficult to govern and continues to fuel secessionism in the polarized polity.


During whirlwind shuttle diplomacy, American diplomats have invited Kosovo to propose an acceptable ASM model. Resolving this issue to everyone’s liking is crucial to solidifying agreement between Kurti and Vucic when they meet again later this week.


It’s also still not clear what sweeteners will be offered to Kosovo. If the door to the U.N. will remain closed for the time being, Kosovo must receive an open path toward NATO and E.U. membership. Both are currently blocked by a handful of European non-recognizers: Greece, Spain, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus.

Compromises are inescapable in successful diplomacy. And in a broader geopolitical framework, the West’s strategy is sound. A deal would weaken the Kremlin’s grip over the Balkans and could set the region on a path toward eventual integration into the West.


But if the agreement only defuses ethnic tensions in the short term at the cost of Kosovo’s lasting sovereignty, it will leave the region unstable.
Serbia itself will need to change. Vucic has proven himself to be an authoritarian shapeshifter with a nationalist core.

For more than a decade, he has carefully balanced among the West, Russia and even China. But despite the balancing act, Serbian society in recent years has moved in an anti-Western direction, as state-controlled media have fuel rampant Putinophilia and mainlined revisionist narratives about Serbia’s recent wartime past.

It’s tempting to think that an authoritarian regime can change course if only it decides to do so. But it’s rarely so simple or easy. Once unleashed, the bacillus of nationalism can be difficult to contain.
Therefore, for the U.S.-E.U. strategy to work, a credible long-term plan is needed for both Serbia and Kosovo to become more embedded in Western institutions. Otherwise, the Balkans will remain vulnerable to manipulation. Half-measures will amount to a virtual invitation to Russia to return to its traditional spoiler role. (WP)

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