Why Berisha is ditching the primaries

The primaries—an internal election process within a political party to determine candidates for general elections—were Sali Berisha’s first major promise three years ago when he launched his campaign against then-Democratic Party leader Lulzim Basha.

However, as the elections draw closer, this promise has been quietly set aside. The main reason was Berisha’s need to strike a deal with a faction within the Democratic Party that had previously supported Basha. To win them over, he promised secure spots on the candidate list, effectively sidelining his initial pledge for primaries. If these MPs had to run in primaries, their shaky loyalty to Berisha would have likely disqualified them.

Occasionally, Berisha revives talk of primaries whenever this faction wavers in its support for him. At times, he even uses media outlets tied to his family to criticize them, only to step in later as their defender. This creates the impression that he is making sacrifices to include them in the candidate lists.

The new electoral system, which reserves 30% of the candidate lists as “closed” spots chosen by party leaders, works in Berisha’s favor. He can fill these safe spots with his most loyal supporters, leaving the rest to compete for seats. This ensures that the next Democratic Party parliamentary group will consist primarily of Berisha loyalists—people he can count on if he is arrested again.

Meanwhile, the Socialist Party has taken a different approach. They plan to place newer, relatively unknown candidates in the safe spots on their lists to encourage internal reform. More established figures will have to compete for their seats, proving their value in the elections. This strategy allows the Socialists to refresh their ranks while also testing their older members.

As a result, after the May 2025 elections, the Socialist Party is likely to emerge with a new group of MPs, while the Democratic Party will have a smaller, more rigid group loyal to Berisha. This dynamic could lead to a dramatic loss for Berisha’s party. Established Socialist figures will likely leverage their popularity to secure more votes, while many Democratic candidates outside the safe 30% will fail to meet the electoral threshold and give up. Those in the closed 30% are guaranteed seats, giving them little incentive to fight hard in the elections. Together, this will likely result in the Democratic Party’s worst-ever performance.

The real issue is that Berisha no longer seems focused on winning elections or achieving a strong result. His primary goal now is to surround himself with loyalists, a strategy made possible by Edi Rama’s introduction of the 30% closed list system and Berisha’s own decision to abandon the primaries.

The article initially appeared in Albanian titled: "Pse Berisha po i shmang primaret?"