SPAK's popularity polls double as a barometer for Berisha's declining support

Despite the reservations one might have about recent polls measuring public support for SPAK (Albania’s Special Structure against Corruption and Organized Crime) and justice reform, the results leave little room for doubt. Whether the margin of error is 90, 80, or 70 percent, public support for SPAK consistently ranges between 70 and 90 percent.

At the same time, these polls also highlight the level of support for SPAK’s adversaries, particularly Sali Berisha, who remains its most vocal opponent in Albania. By simple calculation, his support falls between 10 and 30 percent. This isn’t a complex extrapolation but straightforward math. For any politician facing elections, such a stark disparity in public opinion should be a clear warning to avoid direct confrontation with an institution as widely supported as SPAK. Engaging in a public battle with SPAK only exposes Berisha as representing a small minority.

This does not mean Berisha must embrace SPAK—he has no reason to. But strategically, he would be wise to remain silent rather than escalate a public feud. Yet, instead of showing restraint, he doubles down, attacking SPAK prosecutors personally and even targeting their families with accusations.

The more aggressively Berisha fights against SPAK, the more he alienates himself. If SPAK enjoys 80 percent support, Berisha effectively speaks for the remaining 20 percent. If SPAK’s support climbs to 90 percent, his share drops to just 10 percent. From a purely electoral perspective, this battle is a losing strategy. And yet, rather than avoid it, Berisha deepens it with each passing day.

This behavior makes it clear that Berisha’s war against SPAK is not motivated by electoral ambitions. If it were, he would never attack an institution with the highest credibility among Albanians. Instead, Berisha has launched a personal crusade against SPAK to protect his own and his family’s interests. Unfortunately, he has dragged the Democratic Party, in name only, into this fight.

Anyone who believes Berisha’s battle against SPAK is part of a calculated electoral strategy should reconsider. His diminishing support is easily measurable. Look at SPAK’s popularity, subtract it from 100, and the remainder is Berisha’s standing among voters.

It’s worth noting that Prime Minister Edi Rama also harbors no personal affection for SPAK. Neither does any other politician who handles public funds or has ties to organized crime. However, Rama has consistently expressed public support for SPAK, and his stance is informed by electoral calculations. For Rama and the Socialist Party, supporting SPAK bolsters their image as a political force capable of giving hope to a society where justice has long been a victim of politics.

Interestingly, SPAK has prosecuted and convicted far more individuals from the Socialist Party and government than from the opposition. Yet, no member of the government or Socialist MPs have launched a political campaign against SPAK. Discontent, when it arises, is addressed in court—not in the streets or through public attacks.

When political battles against justice institutions are waged in the streets rather than in court, they cease to be legal disputes and become political theater. At that point, the verdict is no longer delivered by judges but by public opinion. And in Albania, public opinion has already made its position clear—it overwhelmingly supports SPAK.

This is why Albanian Democrats should tread carefully. Beyond their many challenges, they also face an uphill battle in the upcoming general elections. Fighting a public war against an institution like SPAK, which enjoys massive public support, is not just a losing battle—it’s political self-sabotage.

The article initially appeared in Albanian titled: "Sondazhet për SPAK dhe si sondazhe elektorale për Berishën"