2025: The year that could end Albania's prolonged political transition

The year 2025 has the potential to bring an end to Albania's prolonged political transition, which has largely been influenced by Sali Berisha’s refusal to step down and his ongoing control over the Democratic Party.

The upcoming May 2025 elections are not just about their immediate outcome but also about the possibility of ending this political stagnation by freeing the Albanian opposition from Berisha’s influence. At present, the opposition landscape reflects some signs of pluralism, with at least four new parties united in their defiance of Berisha’s dominance. Additionally, another opposition group has emerged, clearly positioning itself against Berisha’s leadership.

Former Democratic Party leader Lulzim Basha, along with his supporters, has yet to determine how they will participate in the elections. However, it is evident that they will not align with Berisha in any capacity. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party finds itself without meaningful allies, aside from a few minor figures whose parties hold little relevance and serve only to create the illusion of alliances.

This new wave of opposition pluralism marks a significant first step by isolating the faction of the opposition that rejects Berisha’s leadership. Berisha’s control now extends solely over the Democratic Party itself.

As for the May 2025 elections, most analyses predict another victory for the Socialist Party, with opposition parties further deepening the Democratic Party’s decline. Under these circumstances, it is expected that the 81-year-old Berisha will refuse to accept the election results, continuing to hold the Democratic Party hostage for another four years.

Adding to his challenges are ongoing legal proceedings, particularly those related to his alleged role in the deaths of four protesters on January 21, 2011, during his tenure as prime minister. These legal troubles are closing in and could further fragment the Democratic Party’s parliamentary group, reigniting internal conflicts.

Moreover, looming investigations into Berisha and his family—compounded by the U.S. Department of State’s “non-grata” designation—make it highly likely that 2025 will mark the end of his dominance over the Democratic Party. This could pave the way for Albania’s opposition to rebuild, establish new leadership, and ultimately pose a serious challenge to the Socialist Party’s hold on power.

Berisha’s departure from Albania’s political scene would signify the exit of a figure who has arguably been the greatest obstacle to the country’s democratic development. From his controversial rise to power during the anti-communist rallies of December 1990 to his reluctance to leave without further destabilizing democracy, Berisha’s legacy is one of entanglement with Albania’s troubled political journey.

The year ahead could finally close this chapter, offering Albania a chance to move toward a more stable and democratic future.

The article initially appeared in Albanian titled: "Viti që mund t’i japë fund tranzicionit politik në Shqipëri"